Atlas Shagged

Flight 007

Today marks the twenty-second anniversay of the Soviet shootdown of Korean Airlines flight 007: this 1983 event heightened the tensions between the Soviet Union and the United States in the Cold War and gave the world a visual of the “Evil Empire” Ronald Reagan had been describing early in his presidency.

Link: Flight 007 — remembered 22 years later

Hometown, USA: Fatalities in Iraq

Over There: A Review By One Who Was Over There

Guest television review by Chief Warrant Officer Erik L. Thiesmeyer, Pilot, U.S.Army Reserve, Operation Iraqi Freedom II, April ’04 to April ‘05.

The Terror in Tehran

Joel Rosenberg reminds us that the distinction between "hardline" and "reformist" electoral candidates is as spurious in today's Iran as it was in yesterday's USSR (and, he might have said, for the same reason: Any true "reformer" would have received a bullet to the back of the head).

Rosenberg stresses also that Russia is a strategic partner with Iran, especially in its nuclear program.  Question: Doesn't that make Russia a de facto member of the Axis of Evil?  Second Question: Since it is official Bush Administration policy to make no distinction between terrorists and those who abet them (G.W. Bush, speech to Joint Session of Congress, Sept. 21, 2001); and since the U.S. continues to designate Iran the world's leading state-sponsor of terrorism ; and since Russia continues to abet Iran -- doesn't the "War on Terror," as originally framed by the Administration, entail "war on Russia"?

Link: Joel C. Rosenberg on Iran on National Review Online.

How Fucked-Up is the FBI?

The FBI vowed to build national expertise for fighting terrorists after the Sept. 11 attacks, but the supervisors who crafted that war plan now say Middle East and terrorism experience haven't been important for choosing their agents.

Executive Assistant Director Gary Bald recently testified:

You don't need subject matter expertise. It is certainly not what I look for in selecting an official for a position in a counterterrorism position.

In hundreds of pages of sworn testimony obtained by The Associated Press, senior FBI managers argued repeatedly that Middle East and anti-terrorism experience aren't required for promotion.

Dale Watson, the FBI's terrorism chief in the two years after Sept. 11, 2001, couldn't describe the difference between Shiites and Sunnis, the two major groups of Muslims. "Not technically, no," Watson answered when asked the question.

Link: FBI Says Counterterror Experts Not Crucial.

Bin Laden-Iran, Continued

More on our pet thesis: Osama's in Iran! 

U.S. officials said in interviews that the Iran theory, which is held by a minority, is based on bits of intelligence information....   Asked whether the U.S. intelligence community thinks bin Laden may be in Iran, a senior administration official told The Washington Times, "Some people think he is."
   
But the Bush administration's official position is that bin Laden is most likely in the border region straddling Pakistan and Afghanistan and that he is hidden by tribal allies. "The consensus is that bin Laden remains in the border region," said a U.S. intelligence official.

Asked about reports that bin Laden is in Iran, which borders both Pakistan and Afghanistan, the official said, "That would be a big risk for the Iranians. ... There are all kinds of rumors that these guys go in and out of Iran, but that always struck me as odd."

A big risk?  You mean, like engaging in behavior which has caused them to be designated the world's main state-sponsor of terrorism, every year since 1980, by the U.S. State Department -- without any retalitaory force being used against them by any other nation? Is that the kind of "big risk" we're talking about here?

Bush administration officials have accused Iran, a U.S.-designated sponsor of terrorism, of harboring al Qaeda lieutenants who escaped from Afghanistan in 2001. ... The U.S. also has intelligence that Abu Musab Zarqawi, who heads al Qaeda in Iraq, has slipped in and out of Iran since 2003 to evade capture.  ... Washington thinks one of bin Laden's sons as well as a top operations chief are in Iran.

If Washington already believes this, and does nothing about it, then sheltering bin Laden seems an increase only in the degree of risk, not in the kind of it.

Link: Some analysts suspect bin Laden slipped into Iran.

Red Spies in the U.N.

The organizers of a celebration in San Francisco to mark the 60th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations have expressed concern that the Bush administration would shun the event. But there are many good reasons to shun it; and among them is the pivotal role that Alger Hiss, a Soviet Agent in the U.S. Government, played in creating the UN.

The "Bombings" in Iran

Yesterday's reported bombings in Iran were most likely the work of the Iranian Ministry of Internal Security (MOIS). 

This would follow the pattern used effectively by the Soviets and aligned nations.  The Soviet secret police routinely created "opposition" groups and used them to monitor and infiltrate anti-Soviet activity.  They often went so far as to stage bombings, in order to establish the groups' bona fides with Western intelligence services. 

Iran, similarly, has a long history of infiltrating and controlling Iranian opposition groups, using sophisticated provocation tactics. In the early 1990s, Iranian security services rolled up the CIA's entire agent network in Iran, which, it turned out, had been under Iranian control from the start. 

With the Bush White House pushing for regime change in Iran, one can posit with near certainty that Iranian intelligence is dangling bogus "agents" and "opposition groups" to the CIA, e.g., the People's Mujahideen Organization, and that these parties are under pressure to "do something."  The bombings in Iran are likely intended to show the CIA that these phony groups can indeed "do something" and thus merit continued U.S. support. 

Typically, when security services stage or incite acts of violence, they do so where the political cost to their own government is lowest. The Iran bombings follow this pattern.  The more damaging explosions, wounding 70 and killing 7, all reportedly occurred in Arab, rather than Persian, parts of Iran.  Since the Arab regions are anti-Government, this is rather like anti-Saddam exile groups proving their mettle by bombing Kurdish settlements. 

The Iranian Government's denials that the bombings even occurred is probably only meant to underscore its alleged "embarrassment" and "lack of control" over events which it in fact has engineered, for the purposes of leading the CIA further down the primrose path.  Expect the "opposition" groups behind these bombings to be rolled up before they can pose any effective threat to the regime.

Link: Iran denies blast, says threats received.

Saddam's WMD in Syria?

Charles Duelfer's final report on WMD concludes that Iraq may well have moved its WMD material to Syria See this article by Jed Babbin, a former deputy undersecretay of defense. (link via William Doino)

Chicoms Down Under

The Chinese Communist Party has "thousands of secret agents in Australia who monitor and report on political dissidents and Falun Gong practitioners, and try to interfere with their activities in Australia," says senior Chinese diplomat Chen Yonglin, who defected from the PRC consulate in Syndey last week.

Link: interview with Mr. Chen.